NEW DelHI: Chuma chaulesi chaku India komanso mafakitale omwe amadalira kwambiri mafuta osakanizika monga ndege, zombo, misewu ndi mayendedwe apanjanji atha kupindula ndi kutsika kwadzidzidzi kwamitengo yamafuta osakanizidwa chifukwa cha mliri wa coronavirus ku China, wogulitsa mafuta padziko lonse lapansi, atero azachuma, mabwana akulu ndi akatswiri.
Ndi mafakitale osiyanasiyana akuwongolera njira zawo pomwe zonenedweratu za kufunikira kwa mphamvu zikuchepa chifukwa cha kufalikira kwa coronavirus, ogulitsa mafuta ambiri monga India akufuna kuyendetsa bwino. India ndi dziko lachitatu padziko lonse loitanitsa mafuta kunja komanso lachinayi pakukula kwa gasi wachilengedwe (LNG).
Msika wamafuta pakadali pano ukukumana ndi vuto lotchedwa contango, pomwe mitengo yamafuta imakhala yotsika kuposa mapangano am'tsogolo.
"Kuyerekeza ndi mabungwe angapo akuwonetsa kuti zofuna za ku China za Q1 zidzatsikira ndi 15-20%, zomwe zimabweretsa kuchepa kwa zinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi. Izi zikuwonetsa mitengo yamafuta ndi LNG, omwe onse ndi abwino ku India. Izi zithandiza India pazachuma chake chachikulu pokhala ndi vuto laakaunti lomwe lilipo posinthanitsa, kusungitsa ndalama," adatero Miqu. Wothandizira ku Deloitte India.
International Energy Agency (IEA) ndi Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) achepetsa kufunikira kwamafuta padziko lonse lapansi kutsatira kufalikira kwa coronavirus.
"Magawo monga ndege, utoto, zoumba, zinthu zina zamafakitale, ndi zina zotere zitha kupindula ndi dongosolo lamitengo yabwino," adawonjezera Mishra.
India ndi malo ofunikira kwambiri aku Asia oyenga, omwe amatha kuyika matani opitilira 249.4 miliyoni pachaka (mtpa) kudzera m'malo 23 oyeretsera. Mtengo wa dengu la ku India la crude, lomwe linali $56.43 ndi $69.88 pa mbiya mu FY18 ndi FY19, motsatana, linali $65.52 mu Disembala 2019, malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Mtengo unali $54.93 mbiya pa 13 February. Dengu la Indian likuyimira pafupifupi Oman, Dubai ndi Brent crude.
"M'mbuyomu, mitengo yabwino yamafuta idawona kuti phindu la ndege likuyenda bwino," atero a Kinjal Shah, wachiwiri kwa purezidenti wamabizinesi ku bungwe la ICRA Ltd.
Pakuchepa kwachuma, makampani oyendetsa ndege ku India adakwera 3.7% mu 2019 mpaka okwera 144 miliyoni.
"Iyi ikhoza kukhala nthawi yabwino kuti ndege zithandizire zomwe zatayika. Ndege zitha kugwiritsa ntchito izi kuti zibweze zomwe zatayika, pomwe apaulendo angagwiritse ntchito mphindi ino kukonzekera ulendo chifukwa mtengo wa matikiti a ndege ungakhale wabwino m'thumba," adatero Mark Martin, woyambitsa ndi CEO ku Martin Consulting Llc, mlangizi woyendetsa ndege.
Kufalikira kwa coronavirus ku China kwakakamiza makampani opanga magetsi kumeneko kuyimitsa mapangano operekera ndikuchepetsa zotulutsa. Izi zakhudza mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi komanso mitengo yotumizira. Kuvuta kwa malonda komanso kuchepa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kulinso ndi vuto lalikulu pamisika yamagetsi.
Akuluakulu ku Indian Chemical Council, bungwe lazamakampani, adati India imadalira China pazamankhwala pamtengo wamtengo wapatali, ndipo gawo la dzikolo pakugulitsa kuchokera ku 10-40%. Gawo la petrochemical limagwira ntchito ngati msana wa magawo ena osiyanasiyana opanga ndi osapanga monga zomangamanga, magalimoto, zovala ndi zokhazikika zogula.
"Zinthu zambiri zopangira komanso zoyimira zimatumizidwa kuchokera ku China. Ngakhale, mpaka pano, makampani omwe akuitanitsa izi sakukhudzidwa kwambiri, njira zawo zoperekera zinthu zikuwuma. Chifukwa chake, angamve kuti akupita patsogolo ngati zinthu sizikuyenda bwino, "adatero Sudhir Shenoy, Purezidenti wa dziko komanso CEO wa Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Izi zitha kupindulitsa omwe amapanga mankhwala a raba, ma electrode a graphite, wakuda wa kaboni, utoto ndi utoto chifukwa kutsika kwa China kungathe kukakamiza ogula kuti azipeza kwanuko.
Mitengo yotsika imabweretsanso uthenga wabwino kunkhokwe za boma pakati pa kuchepa kwa ndalama komanso kuchepa kwachuma komwe kukukulirakulira. Chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwa zosonkhanitsira ndalama, nduna ya zachuma Nirmala Sitharaman, popereka bajeti ya Union, adapempha kuti athawe kuti atengepo gawo la 50-points pakusokonekera kwachuma kwa 2019-2020, kutengera kuyerekeza komwe kwasinthidwa kukhala 3.8% ya GDP.
Bwanamkubwa wa RBI Shaktikanta Das Loweruka adati kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta kudzakhala ndi zotsatira zabwino pakukwera kwamitengo. "Kukwera kwakukulu kukuchokera ku kukwera kwa mitengo yazakudya, ndiko kuti, masamba ndi zinthu zomanga thupi. Kutsika kwa mitengo kwatsika pang'ono chifukwa cha kukonzanso mitengo yama telecom," adawonjezera.
Zolemedwa ndi kuchepa kwa mafakitale, mafakitale aku India adachita mgwirizano mu Disembala, pomwe kukwera kwamitengo kwamitengo kudakwera kwa mwezi wachisanu ndi chimodzi motsatizana mu Januware, zomwe zidayambitsa kukayikira za momwe chuma chatsopanochi chikuyendera. Kukula kwachuma ku India akuyerekezedwa ndi National Statistical Office kutsika ndi 5% kwa zaka 11 mu 2019-2020 chifukwa chakugwiritsa ntchito mosasamala komanso kufunikira kwa ndalama.
Madan Sabnavis, katswiri wazachuma pa CARE Ratings, adati mitengo yotsika yamafuta yakhala dalitso ku India. "Komabe, kupanikizika kokwera sikungathetsedwe, ndikuchepetsa kwina komwe OPEC ndi maiko ena omwe amatumiza kunja." Chifukwa chake, tiyenera kuyang'ana momwe tingakwezerere zogulitsa kunja ndikuyang'ana kuti tithandizire kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta, ndiye kuti, coronavirus, ndikukankhira katundu wathu ku China, kwinaku tikuyang'ana njira zina zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa ogulitsa kunja.
Pokhudzidwa ndi momwe mafuta akufunira, OPEC ikhoza kupititsa patsogolo msonkhano wawo wa Marichi 5-6, gulu lawo laukadaulo likuvomereza kudulidwa kwakanthawi kwa makonzedwe a OPEC +.
"Chifukwa cha malonda abwino ochokera Kum'mawa, zotsatira za madoko monga JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) zidzakhala zambiri, pamene doko la Mundra lidzakhala lochepa," atero a Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, wotsogolera komanso wotsogolera kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendedwe ka Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Choyipa ndichakuti zina mwazopanga zitha kuchoka ku China kupita ku India kwakanthawi."
Pomwe kukwera kwamitengo yotsika chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mikangano pakati pa US ndi Iran kunali kwakanthawi, kufalikira kwa coronavirus ndi zomwe zatsala pang'ono kudulidwa ndi mayiko a OPEC zadzetsa chinthu chosatsimikizika.
"Ngakhale mitengo yamafuta ndi yotsika, ndalama zosinthira (rape motsutsana ndi dollar) zikukwera, zomwe zimabweretsanso ndalama zambiri. Timakhala omasuka pamene rupee ili pafupifupi 65-70 motsutsana ndi dola.
Kunena zoona, kuchulukirachulukira kwa mafuta kungayambitsenso mitengo yomwe ingapangitse kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kuwononga kufunikira kwake.
Kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kumakhudzanso kukwera mtengo kwa zopangira ndi zoyendera komanso kumapangitsa kukwera kwamitengo yazakudya. Kuyesayesa kulikonse kochepetsera mtolo wa ogula pochepetsa msonkho wa mafuta a petulo ndi dizilo kungalepheretse kusonkhanitsa ndalama.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey ndi Gireesh Chandra Prasad anathandizira nkhaniyi.
Tsopano mwalembetsa ku makalata athu. Ngati simungapeze imelo iliyonse kumbali yathu, chonde onani chikwatu cha sipamu.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-28-2021